Great Indian elections ended this weekend with Congress getting a surprisingly decisive victory. And as they say - success has many fathers, so now everyone from TV anchors to reporters are falling over each other to describe it as a nationwide verdict for Congress, thumbs up to Manmohan Singh and charisma of Rahul Gandhi. I beg to differ completely from first two and partially from the third.

But before that I must clarify that I was hoping for a BJP victory in these elections. And my change of mind after supporting Congress 5 years back came because of three main reasons:

• Terrorism in the country. I have been really pained by utter failure of Congress government on internal security. Bomb blasts became rampant in last year and a half and all government did was to appeal for calm and patience.
• Other big disappointment was reservations in IIMs and AIIMS and other institutions of higher learning. I see that as murder of meritocracy and I was hoping that congress would be punished for that by Indian youth.
• Finally, 5 years back I had hoped that Congress would do better than push its communal agenda under secular guise but I was wrong. If BJP is a saffron party then Congress is a green party (given their links with IUML, MIM and potentially AUDF its more than obvious anyways). MMS believes that certain people have first claim to resources of our country only because they belong to a certain religion. Unacceptable !!! Just like I believe reservation should be on economic grounds similarly I believe that Govt.'s plan should help all needy and not just minorities.
  

But let's get back to election results, first question I tried to answer was whether congress victory in the elections really a nationwide mandate for congress ? I looked at election results in some key states and realized that it's far from that. Rather, congress won big in several states not because of any wave but due to lack of unity in opposition. Let’s look at a few examples:

- Maharashtra

Congress+NCP won 25 seats in Maharashtra against 21 for BJP-SS combine. MNS, an offshoot of SS, with a support base derived from those who supported Shiv Sena previously won none. Now consider 10 seats where Raj Thackery’s MNS was contesting. If you add votes polled by MNS in these seats to BJP/SS votes then in 9 out of these 10 constituencies - BJP/SS would have won comfortably. Result would have then read as 30 to BJP+SS and 16 to INC+NCP. So there was no congress wave in Maharashtra it was just a MNS dam that obstructed BJP wave

- Andhra Pradesh

In AP, Congress won 33 seats and “Mahakutumbi” opposition just 5 seats, PRAP of Chiranjeevi none. But PRAP got significant anti-congress voteshare. Of the 33 seats won by Congress in AP, in 28 seats TDP/TRS + PRAP votes are more than congress votes. Had PRAP been part of an united opposition, congress would have just managed 5 seats in AP and opposition would have won 33 seats. Congress wave - hardly !!!

- Tamil Nadu

Go to TN and you will find similar statistics again, had Vijaykanth's DMDK not split anti-DMK votes from opposition. DMK+Congress wouldn’t have touched half the number of seats they finally won.

So in my analysis of vote figures, congress won 85 seats in AP+TN+Maharashtra not because of any wave but mere disunity in opposition. Had there been no division of votes, Congress would have won only 35 seats in these three seats a whopping 50 below its final tally. So if UPA is 260 today and not 210, then credit shouldn’t go to Sonia or Rahul but to Raj Thackrey, Chiranjeevi and Vijaykanth.

Kerala, Uttarakhand, Haryana and Punjab was anti-incumbency vote and Congress benefited by virtue of being sole opposition in these states. In Rajasthan and J&K, Congress government has only been installed a few months back and they are still in the honeymoon period so in-effect they were basically riding on the anti-incumbency vote for the previous government that propelled them to power last year in these states. Call it a lucky timing rather than pro-congress wave.

Delhi did have a pro-incumbency vote but it accounts for 7 seats and to get only 7 seats out of 262 due to good governance is not something to be flattered about.

In West Bengal, the difference in vote share between left parties and opposition has never been too great. With Trinmool and Congress coming together as well as left’s blunder of becoming a B-team of congress thereby tacitly acknowledging status of Congress as key party worked for congress. INC+TMC was a smart alliance and arithmetically all they needed was slight swing to succeed. But I must admit that people must have seen congress positively to provide that swing vote.

And that brings you to UP, and here I will give the credit where it’s deserved. Rahul Gandhi deserves the credit of reviving congress in UP. Rahul had concentrated solely on UP over last few years and so he fully deserves credit for each seat won by Congress in UP. Frankly speaking, UP, Delhi and West Bengal are only states where one can say there was a pro-congress wave.

What proves beyond doubt that there was no nationwide support for congress are results from Bihar, MP, Guajarat, Chhatisgarh, Jharkhand and Karnataka.

So, while there is no denying that results of Indian elections have all but sealed a 5 year term for congress but it would be a major mistake to see this as a countrywide undercurrent for the ruling party. Big Indian elections have lately been a sum of 28 small state elections and this one was no different. Only difference this time was that arithmetic worked out well for INC and to mistake sum of parts to be whole is over-simplification of complex Indian polls.

Hopefully, with leader like Arjun Singh & Antulay out of cabinet and congress no dependent on likes of Lalu, Mulayam and Karat, we could just be second time lucky with MMS. It might also help if pretense of MMS as PM could be done away with sooner than later and one of the Gandhi’s take up their dynastic seat as PM (Alas !!!). As for Congress's youth brigade - it's nothing but an extension of the dynastic politics championed by . All youth leaders in congress like Pilots, Deoras, Scindias and Prasads are not there because they have risen from grassroots but because their parents’ position perched at top echelons in congress.

But there is indeed a silver lining in this cloud and that is that country will finally have a stable government and Rahul indeed exudes sincerity. I am just hoping that better sense prevail on government in next 5 years or else we will be left to rue a choice that can't be undone till 2014.